Contrary to reports over the last decade, the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) is now predicting a nursing surplus by 2025.
Assuming nurses continue to train at current levels, HRSA expects new full-time equivalents to grow by 33% nationally by 2025 while the nationwide demand is expected to grow by just 21%.
New delivery care models will likely contribute to new growth in demand for nurses, which is not considered for the projections in this study, according to HRSA.
But while it seems a national shortage will be avoided, HRSA says 16 states are projected to experience slower RN growth resulting in shortages in those states by 2025. Ten of those states are located in the West, four in the South and two in the Northeast, according to HRSA. The states predicted to experience the greatest shortages are Arizona with a 28,100-nurse deficit, and Colorado and North Carolina, each expected to be 12,900 nurses short of their needs.
Surpluses are expected in 34 states, including all Midwestern states, according to the projections.